Енергетска игра и македонска криза

Energetska igra i makedonska kriza

22 jula 2015

Dragomir Andjelkovic 3843Piše: Dragomir Anđelković

Mediji u svetu i regionu izveštavaju da je okončana makedonska kriza. Uz asistenciju EU, lideri vodećih stranaka u Makedoniji postigli su detaljan dogovor o održavanju prevremenih parlamentarnih izbora. Time su trasirali put svojoj zemlji ka političkoj stabilnosti. Stvari su ipak mnogo komplikovanije.

Sledeće objašnjenje makedonske krize gotovo se papagajski ponavlja: opozicija koju predvodi Zoran Zaev optužila je premijera Gruevskog za korupciju i druga nedela, a vlada je uzvratila tužbom protiv Zaeva zbog špijuniranja i pokušaja destabilizacije zemlje. Tenzije su kulminirale uz organizovanje masovnih okupljanja pristalica obe velike makedonske partije. Na njihovu svađu nadovezalo se i nezadovoljstvo Albanaca, čime je čitava situacija dobila dodatnu međunacionalnu zapaljivost. Ukratko, iz nekog razloga grdno se posvađaše Makedonci, a njima se priključiše ništa manje violentni Albanci. Srećom, tu je dobronamerna EU uvek spremna da priskoči u pomoć.

Činjenice su sasvim drugačije. Pre nego što se situacija u Makedoniji užarila, otpočela je inostrana medijska satanizacija premijera te zemlje. Kontakti Brisela sa njim skoro da su prekinuti. Postao je nepoželjna osoba jer uz sve mane koje on i njegova garnitura imaju, pokazalo se da Gruevski sistematski radi na jačanju makedonskih državotvornih kapaciteta. A Brisel i Vašington sve države tzv. zapadnog Balkana vide kao uključi/isključi provizorijume. Drugim rečima kao kvazidržave koje stoje na staklenim nogama i koje na nečiji pritisak dugmeta po potrebi mogu da se urušavaju ili na ovaj ili onaj način prekomponuju.

Od na taj način zamišljenih entiteta, Makedonija je predstavljena kao najgori, a Skoplje je počelo tome da se unutrašnjim državno identitetskim jačanjem opire. Kada se na to još doda i njegovo geopolitičko disidentstvo oličeno u približavanju Srbiji pa i Rusiji, sa kojom se koketiralo u domenu strateške energetske saradnje – stigli smo do početka krize. Uz spoljni pritisak, u Makedoniji su pokrenuta tzv. narandžasta komešanja. Kada se pokazalo da ona nisu dala željeni rezultat s obzirom na to da se makedonska vladajuća garnitura nije demoralisala te se pokazala borbenijom i sposobnijom od opozicije – aktiviran je i albanski faktor. Nad Makedonijom su se tako nadvili ratni oblaci!

Oficijelno Skoplje ni tada nije popustilo. Pokazalo je zavidnu odlučnost i hrabrost, pa je tako kupilo neko vreme. Međutim, bilo je jasno da je pred Makedonijom opasan period. Globalni igrači ne odustaju kada su ugroženi njihovi interesi. No, tu se nešto dogodilo što može stvarno da dovede do dužeg smirivanja makedonske krize. Rusija je, makar do daljeg, odustala od „Južnog toka 2” ili, kome je draže „Turskog toka”. Otpor vodećih zapadnih sila bio je snažan i na toj trasi ruskog gasnog prodora ka Evropi i, što je još bitnije, Ankara se pokazala kao nesolidan partner koji umesto da radi dugoročno lešinari kratkoročno. Ili pak to radi kako bi imala prostor da trguje na drugoj strani.

Uz to, novi razvoj događaja sa Iranom i potencijalnim aktiviranjem njegovih ogromnih gasnih rezervi u čitavu energetsko-geopolitičku igru unosi se novi kvalitet. Bitka se nastavlja sa redefinisanim parametrima. U njoj ni Rusija, ni EU, niti SAD nisu poraženi, već zauzimaju nove pozicije i modifikuju pristupe. Ali, kada se radi o Makedoniji, Zapad sada ima mnogo manje interesa da je diže u vazduh. Gruevski mu nije po volji – no s obzirom na to da je spreman da se žilavo bori – pragmatični zapadni centri moći spremni su da i sa njim prave neke kompromise. Bitno je samo da se splet geopolitičkih okolnosti dovoljno promenio da makedonski premijer u širem kontekstu ne predstavlja izazov.

Iz svega rečenog proizlazi da je izgledno smirivanje makedonske krize. Međutim, manipuliše se njenim karakterom. Pokrenuta je medijska propagandna ofanziva kako bi se sve predstavilo kao unutrašnje političko pitanje koje dobija pozitivan rasplet uz pomoć benevolentnih EU rođaka. Nije tako! Radi se o tome da su Vašington i njegovi verni sledbenici u EU izgubili razlog da i po cenu iz njihovog ugla većih ekonomskih i političkih troškova pale požar u Makedoniji. Zato će ta zemlja bar neko vreme – dok se spolja ponovo ne pritisne dugme destrukcije – biti mirna!

(Politika)

KOMENTARI



9 komentara

  1. ZORAN says:

    Kao prvo g-dine Andelkovicu, treba malo vise unutarnnje analize kako bi pisali za drugoj drzavi. Ovakvog lopova u analima Makedonske istorije nije zabelezeno. Ne bih hteo da govorim koliko firmi je unisteno. Zaduzivanje porasno je nekoliko puta.Izgradili su kup spomenika koji ne donosi pare (nisu fabrike) za basnoslovne sume. Samo kao primer jedna zalosna vrba u reci Vardar kupljena je za 500.000 EUR. Pokradene su fabrike, i ogroman broj privatnih uspesnih firmi je unisteno i preotimano. Skopski zemjlotres 63 je sala sprema ono sto se sada desava. Korupcija gora nego u Rusiji. Posledice cuvsvuvace ovaj narod sledecih 100 godina. Razgovarajte argumentima a ne rekla kazala. Pred faktima i bogovi cute. Tacno je da su SAD donele ovog ludaka, sa narandzastoj programi koja je bila identicna programi u Ukraini. Sad pomoci EU i SAD ovaj sistem ce da ruse, i hvala bogu samo tako moze ova drzava da opstane, inace nam ne gine vojna. Ovi samo zaposljavaju pandure a nema ko da ih placa. To je sistem voenih diktatura.

  2. zoran says:

    Hteo bih da dodam ili postavim pitanje. Dali znate koja cena placa Makedonija za rsuki gas. Ako poresecna cena u Evropi je 350 dolara za m3 u Makedoniji place se po ceni od 520 dolara za m3. Postoji jena elektrana na gasu koje iz Rusije i tu firmu drze Rusi. Druga firma je toplifikacija gde zagrevanje gradzana Skopjlja ide kroz tu firmu i koja je ruska sopstvenost (promenili su zakon kako bi makedonci ono sto smo svi placali za toplovodni sistem sada preko jednog zakona su predali Rusima normalno za velike pare koje bi se upotrebile za vracanje istog sistema vojene dikatature.Ako je susedima lose stanje nemojta da se nadate da ce vama biti mnogo bolje.

  3. aleksandar says:

    Bravo,Zorane,svaka ti je na mestu.

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